Club Arnage

been looking at the medium range La Sarthe weather forecast,  looks like it is begining to warm up with more sun and a lot less rain.

http://tinyurl.com/kdetq

 

Yes but it still only goes to early June.  I guess we should track it and see how it differs.

t.

Hi Tom, where have you been hiding?  couldn't be cutting grass as its too wet.  Your right about watching the overall pattern, been looking at it over the last few weeks and it looks as if it is improving.  fingers and toes crossed.

I will try to keep an eye on "Meteo" - french weather channel and keep you posted as PQ and race approach.

Hi Peter,

I managed to mow one of the lawns yesterday.  Got soaked in the process.   Yes it's a bit wet for doing that but I was on hols.  So tthe grass was getting a bit long.  I'll need a scythe if it gets much longer on the other Lawns.   

So if the nick changes to "The Grimreaper "  You'll know why.

T.

I've started a page to track the forcast.  It's at http://team-kgb.co.uk/cgi-bin/wiki.pl?WxForcastLeMans

Lets see how it goes.

t

Thunderstorms on Test Day? So I'll only get to wear the pouch on the Fri and Sat of that weekend...  ::)

Rethink!   The thunderstorms are gone and the Temp has jumpped by 10 Degrees.   May 31 has suddenly changed too.  Yesterday they said "Plenty of sunshine" today they predict "Mostly Cloudy". 

I will allow you to draw your own conclusions.

t.

Sounds like it's as predictable as Spa!!

The weather was great until we got past Brussels on the way there, and then in 5 minutes it changed to overcast and rain. Same on the way back, as soon as we cleared Liege everything brightened up!

It seems to ahve it's own little weather pocket!

One expectes the weather to change as you travel.   You also get odd weather patterns like The Fone effect where the weather on one side of the mountain is wet nad the other side is bright and sunny.

But when you look at the difference in the predicions from one day to the next you see that in truth the weather man doesn't know which way the wind blows. 

t.

GFrench weather forecasts are terrible.

This last weekends said - Scattered showers and 18 degrees.

For 30 minutes of the Moto GP it was 18 degrees... Then we started to leave, the heavens opened, thunder, lightening, VERY high winds and it didnt stop until CALAIS.

This year is to be WET.

I might invest a tenner in a gazebo then - tho most gazebos are bigger than my tent!

I'd invest in a caravan and awning, come rain or shine.  Oh I forgot, I have.

A few years ago checked the weather in the morning, it said there would be thunderstorms when we arrived.
When we arrived there was not a cloud in the sky.

The Aviation forcasts are usually pretty good.    But the longest they forcast is 24 Hours. 
Since we have three week to go and will have at least five full fifteen day forcasts before I leave.

I'll keep posting a summary here each day.  To hilight any changes.

But you can always see the full thing on http://team-kgb.co.uk/cgi-bin/wiki.pl?WxForcastLeMans

T.

Well they still can't make up their minds about June 4.

15 day fc: Colder with Thunderstorms.
14 day fc: Warm Plenty of sunshine
13 day fc: Partly sunny.

Weaher man make your kin mind up.

They have had a 13 deg swing in the Temp from 3 deg above the Average minimum temp and 3 deg about the Average Max.  Well I recon you can guess those sorts of temperatures for yourself. 

On average they have 12 wet days in June so if you guess Wet every third day you'll be pretty close.

t.

Well it looks like they are settleing on a temerature for June 4.

They seem pretty crap at guessing the rain though.  No rain reported at the air field but thats only 9 till 5.
So It really does make the forcast look pretty useless.  Still we will plod on and see how it goes.

http://team-kgb.co.uk/cgi-bin/wiki.pl?WxForcastLeMans

t.

My 10 day forecast suggests 20 degrees, partly cloudy 20% chance of rain for a week Friday (PQ scrutineering) - less than 10 days away now! :)

I'm off to the Dordogne tommorow (don't worry, I come back in time to go to Le MAns) and have been following the 10 & 15 day forecasts every day over the last week to see what the weather is going to be like.

It changes substantially every day.  I think they make it up  No, they would be more consistant if they did.

Keep at it Tom, there is always EXTRA tropicoma for hard efforts!!

In the 10 minutes since my last post its gone dark grey and absolutely hissed down, and now the suns out.

You can't forecast that

This isvery true!  Meteo (weather channel) is much more accurate and not stupid enough to forecast more than 7 days ahead with the last two always flagged up as "provisional".  Best to wait until they declare before believing anything.  Certainly, it's windy and unpleasant today.

what would be very helpful is the circuit webcam to be working!!!

http://www.lemans.org/sport/sport/dossiers/travaux/i_travaux_village_webcam.html

Guess we'll have to make do with this

http://www.autoroutes.fr/voyage/webcams.php?lng=2#

no rain here then!!

Well today the forcast of four days ago for today looks to me like it was pretty close to what happened.  Two of the weather reports from the Airfield showed showers.  The max temp was 17 just 1 deg more than the four day forcast but 2 deg more than the others.

I wonder if they just have 15 sets of weather then show each one over the 15 days and then just clain well we got the forcast right N days ago.

t.

It's bad news folks.  PQ June 4 has gone Thunderstorms again.
http://team-kgb.co.uk/cgi-bin/wiki.pl?WxForcastLeMans

t.

Scrutineering days for PQ still looking sunny and warm though (better get my pics then.)

Well would you Adam & Eve it.  June 4 is now set for Plenty of sunhine. No Mention of Thunderstorms till June 9th.

IMNSHO the 15 day forcast is a waste of time.  None the less I continue just to prove my point.  ;)

T.

Well looking at PQ I will take sun block and brollies...not very consistent is it?

Well one could say it is consistent.  It's consisitently inconsistent!

And from tomorrow, metcheck will cover PQ

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/europe_forecast_7days.asp?locationID=1758

Just checked AccuWeather. test w/e looks OK, but my arrival day is now in range (Sun 11 June) and I *LOVE* the forecast for that day.

Turning warmer with times of clouds and sun High: 26° C RealFeel: 27° C   8) 8) 8)

Even the overnight temperature is about what the daytime temperature is now (16)

And what makes you think they are any good or better at forcasting the weather?
Just look at June 3.
At 1:58 this morning they forcast 11% cloud and Temp 17.
At 7:59 this morning they forcast 5% cloud and Temp 19.

t.

Don't eat it Smokie,  It's horse manure.   Tomorrow the forcast will have changed to something else.

Basicly the weather man can tell you what the temperature is now.  He's 100% on that one.
He can tell you whats likely to happen in the next few hours.  He not 100% on that but close.
He'll give you a good idea of the weather tomorrow. 
Beyond that IMNVHO he's 100% useless.

t

But a selection of forecasts may give a better overview than just one.

You're just cranky because you only got 6 hours of sleep;-)

A Bumpper Dumpper and a Septic tank both have S**t in them the quantity varies but it'd still S**t.
Don't misstake quantity for Quality.

What makes you think I got that much sleep? :D

The point I'm making is that in 6 hours they revised the cloud forcast by 50% and the temp by 50% of the difference from the average.

The whole weather  forcast is hog wash.  You might as well guess.  The PQ weekend will be around 21 and they is  30% chance of rain.   The race weekend will be around 23 and a 30%  chance of rain.  It hasn't really raind for a few years now SO I reckon there is a good chance this will be  a wet one.  Thats based on the fact that the Average temp in May is 20 and in June it's 23.   There are 12 days will rain fall on average in June hence my 30% chance of rain. 

So lets see what happens.
t.

And six hours go by and you'll never belive this

15% cloud and temp 12. 

I think  they need a Clue.

t.

I know it's all based on computer models, rather than a proper forecast, but in my experience of their UK , the weather is <rarely> worse than the forecast.

I'm not going to PQ, but if I was, I'd be happy with that forecast, as the wx would probably be better.

However, long range forecasts are about as reliable as pete doherty. They might as well use a pin, you only really get decent accuracy within 3 or 4 days.

It depends on your definition of worse.  I'm not sure how they actualy make up thier minds for weathe rfor public concumpton.  In aviation the forcasts give Probability figures.  But they only go to 40% probability if it's over 40% then that is the forcast.
As discussed in another thread the weather is a bit academic really.   Even if it going to be raining stair rods we would still go.
I always work on the assumption it's going to pee down all week.    I don't care how certian the Weather man is that the weather will be dry.   I take the foul weather gear.

t.

Lawnmowerman

The good old 9 hour TAF eh?  If we can get a 900 hour one for LFRM that'd be good. I'll ask around at work, see what the met office can come up with

Cheers

N

I find this site

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/europe_forecast_7days.asp?locationID=1758

very accurate however they only do a 48 hour or 7 day forcast for LM as far as I can see.

No Rick they change their mind every six hours.  though I'll give them their due they have not changed their minds in the Last 6 hours.

t.

Well LFRM only do 6 hour TAFs. 
If you reallt do have contacts at the MET Office can you find out what this TAF means.

LFRM 281544Z 281518 CNL=

They always put one out each night.

If you want the days weather for LFRM try
http://tmdg.co.uk/cgi-bin/auth/afinfo?ALLM=LFRM

For all of the bells and whistles go to http://tmdg.co.uk/weather/

t.

I'll see what I can come up with - I'm an air traffic controller, but one of the met guys will decode for me I'm sure.

Aha, got it.

CNL - Cancelled
Taf was cancelled. This may be due to the following reasons:
 a) No observation(metar) available.
 b) Taf could not be kept under constant review.

Hope this helps

N

there's this one too>> http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/07235.html

Don't worry about the weather in Le Mans, it will be there... ;D ;D ;D

I can see tread drift comeing in here.  Where do you work?   I'm a PPL hence my intrest in the weather TAFs and METAR.

t.

Quite agree Werner.  Lots of it too.  ;D ;D ;D

t.

Drift indeed.

I'm based in Aberdeen, but work Sumburgh radar and Anglia Radar.

Right we've not spoken then.   I only fly VFR well I do some IFR but it's "I Follow Roads" in my case.   Also Alpha Golf is somewhat negative on the Squawk.   So even if I try i get told to bu**er off.  Luton are normally OK in the Light Aircraft Corridor.   

t.

Have you ever flown yourself to LM, or are you not a minimalist packer?

Test weekend now looks really good!!

Only 12deg C but no cloud!!!

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/europe_forecast_7days.asp?locationID=1758

Yes,  I've done it once.  It was my first Cross Channel flight and I  flew solo.  No GPS just good old Compass and Map.  I did have a VOR but I'd never really used it so could rely on useing that.  It took me 24 hours to get there due to bad weather on the way down. Stayed over night in Beauvais.  But the journey home only took 4 hours.  It's not really practical with the Landing frees and Parking.  Plus the cost of Car rental.

It was great fun.

t.

Yes but what will they say tomorrow?  Overnight they where forcasting 79% cloud.

t

And the main problem with flying to LM is the return, my dad flew once, we left 90 mins after the finish and i was home having the dt's in no time. Prefer the drive, the wind down is better.

I flew back the day after.  The last thing you want ot do is Fly afte on a few hours slep.

t.

Dad was sensible. Hardly drank and got a good nights sleep, made us breakfast sunday morning. It was when we were in the supermarket loading crates of beer into the trolly he said "You can't take any home with us."
Silly question ;D

Here's an interesting site to look at the past dates of weather in LeMans.As we know last year at LeMans it was in the low 30's!! 8)

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/LFRM/2006/5/29/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

Next time and if it is available go onto 100% O2.  Hangover goes in seconds.

OK lets get back on topic.  :-)  The forecast of nine days ago was pretty much spot on I would say,

But they did go a bit off track a few days ago with a temp of 23.

Thelong range stuff is getting in to Race week tomorrow.  :)

For the may history See http://team-kgb.co.uk/cgi-bin/wiki.pl?WxForcastLeMansMay
For June See:- http://team-kgb.co.uk/cgi-bin/wiki.pl?WxForcastLeMansJune.

t.

What's all this talk of weather forcasts? A typical British obsession.

What you need to ask yourself is.

If weather forcasting was 100% accurate and they were forcasting pissing rain, high winds, sleet, the occasional tornado and a plague of locusts thrown in for good measure, would it stop any of us going?

I think not.

So, lets forget the weather and just get out there and enjoy ourselves.

Totally agree Bob but we have to burn bandwidth somehow.  :-) ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Accuweather have no rain for at least the next 15 days. Looking good.

Well said BobU!!  ;D

I don't get this obsession - I don't ever look at a weather forecast.  They are very rarely correct for race circuits and anyway I'm not going to change whether I'm going or not and I'm not going to change what I take with me.  I'm going to take a waterproof coat to Le Mans whether the forecast says it's going to be wet or not and I'm going to take sunblock as well!! 

I broke my own rule and watched a forecast for the Silverstone FIA GT weekend, the forecast was dreadful and I moaned for a week about how awful it was going to be.  In reality it was a fantastic weekend - a bit damp in places but nothing like what had been forecast. 

Plan for the worst it can throw at you and you'll then only be pleasantly surprised!!   

Weather is looking really bad:-

Torrential Rain on Tuesday!!!

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/europe_forecast_14days.asp?locationID=1758

Accuweather Rick. No rain on that forecast.

OK guess i will have to go to accuLE Mans

spot on Bob, "wether" to have a beer to cool down or a cognac to warm up.
We are at Le Sarthe, not blighty!

How about Wed 12 June "A Blend of Sun and Clouds" WTF?  It supposed to be a weather forcast not a bloddy recipe for cake.

t.

I've just invented a catch all forecast.

I can say with some certainty that at PQ and the race itself the weather will be:

Warm and sunny, possible cooler with rain. ;D

Its nice and sunny in Le Mans 21 C yesterday and expecting the same today

Keith good to know our man in LM is keeping us up to date, what do the locals think the weather will be like over race week.  Hopefully more of what you've got now.  Don't really want 30+ like last year!!!

Will keep an eye on the weather channel here towards the end of next week and keep you posted.  Perfect today, 21, sunny, gentle breeze. :)

Well tomorrow is our  First 15 day Forcast.  The forcast  of 21 May was for some thunderstorms.  So what will the day bring?  Just I nice day I would guess.   :)  The forcast has been all over the place for 4 June so one is bound to be right.
The full history is at http://team-kgb.co.uk/cgi-bin/wiki.pl?WxForcastLeMansJune


t.

An guess what it's now down as No Rain and Boiling hot.  Sorry FS.

Nickliv  You prediction is still the spot on I think.  :D

t.

quite true, but it does influence on mode of transport  (eg car or bike) and what i need to take in way of clothing!

not wishing to kybosh anyone going to the race but the weather on Accuweather is begining to look the same as the weather prediction on the weather channel. :-X

race weekend looks wet

yes but only in the morning and at 0.3mm on the metcheck website, temps upto 30degC earlier in the week!

you're willing stick your neck out now rick and say it will only rain in the morning ::)

It's only down as Very Light Rainso it may well be just what we want.  Settle the Dust and take out the heat.

T.

I stand by my previous prediction.

Warm and sunny, but possibly cooler with some rain.

due you think the chance of t,storms has subsided, nick?

Not sure really, the forecasts seem to suggest a warm few days, not excessively hot,  so the threat of a TS may be lower.  Wouldn't bet a beer on it. Would drink a beer in it though ;D Love a good thunderstorm me, was at the 24h karting at LM a good few years ado, and there was the MOTHER of all cloudbursts, 3 inches of water on the track, and the wet T shirts were something to behold  :o

At the risk of sounding like yer granny (as well, possibly, as looking like her), the weather is set to be in the low 30s for the beginning of next week.  Anybody walking round the town, watching scrutineering etc. don't forget to drink loads of water along with the beer and 'poo.  No site worse than a bunch of lobster-coloured brits passing out from heat exhaustion (sure that's wrong where's the spellcheck on this thing...)

Just a quick guide to detect the early signs of dehydration.

One of the first signs of dehydration is feeling thirsty.

If you think you might not be getting enough fluids, check if you are showing any of these other common signs of dehydration:


dark coloured urine and not passing much when you go to the toilet

headaches

confusion and irritability

lack of concentration


all classic LM symptoms, as a rule of thumb at least 3-4 litres of water a day, maybe more if the booze content is high.

 :P

Oh for gawd's sake, yet another lecture from um....whatisname

Just when my head is throbbing too

Now, where was I before i was so rudely...









Actually, thanks Peter, great advice...  :D ;) :D

I always find the 'Pool of Life' works wonders when your sliding do the slippery slope of had to much. The Liverpool Boys pool has brought me back from the brink of death a few times.

Geoff, its not a lecture, when i saw the symptoms of dehydration, it is so similar to situation normal, i just had to put it on the thread.

anyway have a great time, I'll be looking out for you guys  ;), make sure it is a good one and give Fran a big kiss from me.

I'll make sure his hydration levels are tip top all week Peter.

There you go.  Another allround good Egg looking after his mates. 

One free Lawnmow to that man!!!

t.

Just to confuse the matter, a standard hangover has similar symptoms to meningitis.

Have been rendered incapable of movement for 3 days in my past. I must be getting older, they're geting worse.:(

The weather this morning at Camp MB, 24 degrees C Sunny 4kts Southerly.  I guess the camp site is open and the children are busy erecting.

Glad to hear the weather is nice over there on the hallowed turf for you i'll just sit in the corner and sulk  :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'(

French weather station says 32 degrees today and mid-twenties until Sat when hot weather returning and some thunderstorms Sunday.

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/europe_forecast_7days.asp?locationID=1758

 

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/world-forecast.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&traveler=0&zipcode=EUR;FR;-;LE%20MANS;&metric=1

 

http://uk.weather.com/weather/local/FRXX0048

 

It’s going to be wet at some point (possibly really wet) and warm

 

G.

Careful with your flag poles boys

Just been looking at the long distance weather radar, it must be a stunning evening there tonight.  Not long now :-X

Well, Wishy has just rung me to advise that he's set up camp on MB and yes - it is pretty good. They had some torrential rain on the way down though.

He only rang of course to gloat - as we are not travelling until tomorrow evening. Still, only one sleep till the off.....

three days and a wakeup to be DZEROED, not long now. :-X

Well we can now review the weather. 

Accuweather didn't forcast the Thunderstorms we had on Wednesday Night thou they did memtion thunder showers on the 10th.

Thunderstorms were predicted for the Race day but they didn't materialize.

So I think we can safely say.  the Longrange forcasts are not really that much use.

t.

Although Tom, they did predict weather and we had lots of that each and every day ;D

so of some use.